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Increasing worries exist over the potential of armed conflict between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has triggered a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have often been tense. After a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a territorial conflict started in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the border - and suggested the intention to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Despite ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that attempts to justify "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Region

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has shown training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Origins of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the UK forces before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, finishing with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to conflict in 1998.

Though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a statement that the war was over – a move that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

But relations have since broken down once more.